Bitcoin 2024/2025 Thesis

Joe Howe
5 min readDec 7, 2023

Guess who is back from the dead for the 10th time….

Bitcoin seems to be recovering from the shit storm that was 2022, but we may not be totally out of the woods yet. I’ve been following this coin daily for the past 7 years and know things can turn on a dime.

With that said, my gut is pulling me a few different ways. On one hand I think we are so back and going to ATHs (all time highs) in the next two months. On the other hand I know there are a lot of factors at play right now and we could easily trend back to 30K for a bit of time. Either way I wanted to record the possible scenarios I see playing out for myself, so I can understand the thoughts in my head and get them laid out clearly. If you care to read along, power to you, I think it will bode well for you in the coming 12–18 months.

I am going to rattle off four possible scenarios I think will play out over the coming 12–18 months. I’ll start with the one that I think is most likely and work my way down from there. If you have any thoughts or comments along the way, feel free to shoot me a message 😊

Thesis #1:

There is no doubt that the run Bitcoin is having is mostly revolved around the Bitcoin ETF approvals that could happen in January. For those of you not aware of these ETFs here is a short TLDR: Bitcoin ETFs have been trying to get approved since 2017 but have never been successful. Fast forward to 2023 and we have Larry Fink the CEO of Blackrock (the largest asset manager in the world) publicly shilling Bitcoin and applying for a Blackrock Bitcoin ETF. If this gets approved it will provide some much much needed social legitimacy to Bitcoin and allow for a lot more capital to flow into the asset (when I say a lot that is an understatement. Keep in mind Bitcoins market cap is around 850 Billion — Blackrock alone manages around $10 Trillion in assets and these ETFs would allow capital from all public companies, pensions, hedge funds, etc…).

Here is a chart of what happened to gold after the first gold ETF was approved:

So back to price. I think we are going to see a continual grind up ahead of this ETF approval which is slated for around Jan 10th. My guess is this would take us to a price of around 55–60K per coin. Shortly after the ETF approval we would most likely see another week or two of green and get us back around ATHs of 68K per coin. Following that craziness I think we will get a decent pullback over the next month and it brings BTC back to somewhere around the 45–55K mark. Yes volatility in Bitcoin is REAL.

After we cool down in this area, I expect things to pick back up as the BTC halving happens in the middle of April and this has always been a strong driver in price appreciation. Not to mention there is a good chance we see rate cuts in 2024 as well. (I have covered the halving in some of my other papers so I am not going to dive into that here but TLDR: the halving constricts supply, so if demand hold or increases we will see the price of BTC increase. Basic economics).

As we get closer to the halving (mid April), I think 60K is back in play and then by July BTC will be somewhere around 80K. Full blown crypto mania is back at this point and by the end of 2024 we hit the magical 100K per Bitcoin. I think the bull run can continue into 2025 but not for too long. Expecting a top out around 120K in early to mid 2025.

Thesis #2:

My next thought is that Bitcoin could pull back a bit right now and start ranging from 35K-44K up until the ETF approval. (This would be a great time to buy IMO.) Once the ETF is approved, we get a nice boost to 60K and then similar to thesis #1 we see a decent 15–20% drawdown back to around 45K. Hover around 40–50K until about June and then start the ascent up to 100K by EOY. In both of these scenarios I think the top comes in around Q1/Q2 of 2025 if not in December of 2024.

Not a whole lot different in this thesis other then what happens over the next 6–8 weeks.

Thesis #3:

This is where I get a little out of control. Same script as thesis #1 except once the ETF is approved we see some insane things like Apple, Google, or (insert huge company name) announce that they have purchased Bitcoin to put on their balance sheet. This starts the mad dash for every company and every nation state to want to get their hands on Bitcoin. Basically, the whole world starts clawing to get a finite asset (only 21 million) that no one wants to sell. AKA price skyrockets for a year straight and we see something crazy like 200–300K per Bitcoin in 2024–2025.

Thesis #4

Keep in mind this ETF approval is not guaranteed and the SEC could push the review date back again or decline them. All my current scenarios have the ETF getting approved but on the off chance it doesn’t I think we will see a bad crash on BTC back to around 25–30K and then we will slowly grind our way back up through 2024 to hit ATHs (68K) by the end of 2024. Still a full on bull market for the first half of 2025.

In all these scenarios I expect alt coins to do really well after BTC has made its parabolic moves up. BONK and PEPE are the new DOGE/SHIB. You heard it here first.

Side note: All this assumes no black swan event like a world war or COVID 2.0 or a housing market collapse. If that happens I don’t care what you own, we are all screwed until they fire up the printing press again to save the day. Then after the dust settles we would see a post COVID like bull run for a year or two. At which point you sell everything at the top and sit in cash after for a bit.